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⚡ 60-Second Decision Dashboard (check daily)

Use this as your “risk-on vs risk-off” compass.

Dashboard Signal	✅ Bullish Risk Assets When…	⚠️ Bearish Risk Assets When…	Why it matters
10Y Nominal Yield	Falling + fails to reclaim last week highs	Rising + holds above last week highs	Discount-rate pressure
10Y Real Yield	Rolling over / downtrend resumes	Breakout + higher lows	Tech multiple driver
USD (DXY)	Soft / rejected at resistance	Reclaims + holds	Global liquidity tighten/loosen
Volatility (VIX / vol tone)	IV crush after catalysts	IV stays bid into/after events	Stress vs calm
Market Breadth	More sectors participate	Narrow (few names carry)	Narrow = fragile
Credit Tone (simple proxy)	Orderly / no stress	Spreads widen / junk weak	Credit leads equity breaks

📌 Investor rule: If Real yields ↑ + USD ↑, treat rallies as sell-the-rip until proven otherwise.

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✅ The 3-Check Confirmation Stack (avoid 80% of bad decisions)

Before stepping forward, require 2 of 3 checks to agree:

Check	✅ Risk-On Confirmation	⚠️ Risk-Off Confirmation
Rates (10Y Real)	Real yields falling	Real yields rising
FX (DXY)	USD softening	USD strengthening
Participation (Breadth/Credit)	Breadth improves + credit calm	Breadth weak + credit stress

Rule: If the headline says “good” but this stack says “risk-off,” don’t chase. Let price prove it.

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📆 Macro Calendar (ET, concise)

Mon, Feb 16 — 🇺🇸 HOLIDAY

• U.S. stock/bond markets closed → thin liquidity globally, positioning resets

Tue, Feb 17 — “Tape Read” Day

• Post-holiday flow + liquidity check (calm vs jumpy tape)
• Watch if dips get bought without real yields rising

Wed, Feb 18 — 🔥 FULCRUM (1/2)

• FOMC Minutes — What would make them cut / not cut
• Rate-sensitive data (housing/production) — “Are higher rates biting now?”

Thu, Feb 19

• Jobless Claims — trend > one print
• Treasury tone / supply expectations — sets up next week duration pressure

Fri, Feb 20 — 🔥 FULCRUM (2/2)

• PCE inflation — Fed’s preferred gauge
• Flash PMI — growth + pricing pulse in one snapshot
• If both hit same direction → cleanest trend odds

Week logic:
✅ Tue = liquidity + positioning → ✅ Wed = Fed reaction function → ✅ Fri = inflation + growth pulse → Real yields decide the rotation

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🧠 What actually moves the market this week (simple)

1) The “Real Yields + USD Confirmation” Rule

Markets can ignore headlines if the macro spine doesn’t confirm.

If the data is…	But Real Yields / USD do…	Market interpretation
Hot inflation	Don’t rise	“Market fades it” → risk can hold
Hot inflation	Rise together	“Higher-for-longer repriced” → risk-off bias
Cool inflation	Don’t fall	“Not enough to change path” → chop
Cool inflation	Fall together	“Cuts back in play” → risk-on extension

2) Minutes = positioning fuel, not “new news”

Minutes matter when they validate what traders already fear/hope:

• More hawkish minutes + yields up → USD firms → growth can underperform
• Balanced minutes + yields down → breadth improves → risk-on broadens

3) PCE + PMI = regime test (the “big combo”)

• Cooler PCE + steady PMI → soft-landing vibe → broad risk-on
• Sticky PCE + weak PMI → worst mix → risk-off can accelerate

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🔄 Liquidity & Flow (holiday-week reality)

🧲 Dealer Gamma: Range vs Trend

• Range-friendly: pinning, mean reversion works until a catalyst breaks it
• Trend-friendly: acceptance holds, moves extend

💧 Liquidity Rule (simple but powerful)

• Thin liquidity week = smaller size, wider patience
• If real yields + USD trend together post-event → liquidity becomes an accelerant

📌 Investor takeaway: If minutes lean hawkish and PCE is sticky, don’t fight it—rotate, hedge, or reduce beta.

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🎯 Trigger Map (levels that flip bias)

(Act only after break + 30–60 min hold. Avoid the first 5-minute fake.)

Trigger	✅ Bullish Risk Tilt	⚠️ Bearish Risk Tilt
10Y Nominal	Breakdown & hold → duration bid	Breakout & hold → duration pressured
10Y Real	Falling → supports QQQ/NQ	Rising → compresses multiples
DXY	Soft USD = risk tailwind	Firm USD = risk drag
ES/NQ	OR + value acceptance → trend odds rise	Failed acceptance → fade setups
Gold	Best when real yields fall	Gold up with real yields → stress hedge
Credit tone	Calm → dips buyable	Stress → respect downside

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🧭 Scenario Matrix (what to do, not just what happens)

Scenario	Macro Outcome	Market Likely Move	Investor Action
✅ Goldilocks	Minutes balanced + PCE cooler + PMI steady	Real yields ↓, USD soft → risk-on broadens	Add broad/index + quality growth; reduce hedges gradually
⚠️ Higher-for-longer	Minutes hawkish + PCE sticky	Real yields ↑, USD ↑ → rotation & drawdown risk	Trim high-beta; add quality/value; consider collars
🔀 Cross-currents	Mixed signals	Chop + fast factor rotations	Smaller size; sector balance; keep dry powder
❗ Risk-off shock	Sticky PCE + weak PMI / credit stress	Fast de-risk	Reduce exposure, tighten risk, shift defensive

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🧩 Sectors & Themes (decision-focused)

🤖 AI / Semis / Cloud

• Wins when real yields fall and breadth improves
• Tell: if only a few mega names work, rally is fragile

🏦 Financials

• Prefer orderly yields + stable credit
• If USD + yields surge, stay selective (quality balance sheets)

🏠 Housing-adjacent

• Clean “rates are biting” check this week
• Weak housing + sticky inflation = tougher tape for cyclicals

🛒 Consumer

• PCE context = spending power + margin pressure
• Best mix: spending ok without inflation re-accelerating

✅ Beginner lane: Pick one driver per day: (Rates/FX) or (Index) or (One sector ETF).

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💱 FX & 📈 Futures — Quick Lanes

FX: USD/JPY (real yields) · EUR/USD (USD-driven) · USD/CHF (risk hedge) · USD/CAD (oil beta) · AUD/USD (risk pulse)
Futures: ZT/ZN/UB (rates) · ES/NQ (indices) · CL/Brent (energy) · GC (metals)

🧠 Tip: Wait 5–15 minutes after big releases. Trade acceptance, not the first spike.

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🛠️ Defined-Risk Structures (investor-friendly)

(Structure ideas, not signals.)

If minutes calm + PCE cools / USD softens

• Add via call spreads on broad/index exposure
• Consider diagonals if IV was bid into Friday

If minutes hawkish + PCE sticky / yields + USD rise

• Consider collars on core holdings
• Prefer put spreads (defined-risk) vs naked puts

If chop persists

• Smaller size, harvest premium cautiously (defined-risk)
• Prioritize portfolio balance over prediction

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🚫 Two Big Traps This Week (don’t donate money)

1. Post-holiday head fakes (thin liquidity)
2. Minutes/PCE whipsaws (knee-jerk move → reversal)

Protection rule: No “step forward” until 2 of 3 in the Confirmation Stack agree.

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✅ Daily Execution Loop (copy/paste)

Pre-market (10–15 min)

• Check: 10Y nominal, 10Y real, DXY, vol tone, breadth/credit
• Write: Bias + what flips it

Post-data (first 30–60 min)

• Confirm: real yields + USD align with the headline
• Only act if acceptance holds beyond key levels

End of day

• If Friday repricing is large: reduce leverage / tighten hedges into weekend

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📋 Focused Watchlists (clean)

Core ETFs: SPY · QQQ · SMH · XLF · XLY · XLI
Macro: DXY · 10Y nominal · 10Y real · Gold
Optional risk: BTC · ETH (macro-sensitive to USD/real yields)

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Bottom Line

This week isn’t about guessing headlines. It’s about watching the confirmation pair:
✅ Real yields + ✅ USD, validated by breadth/credit.

With a Monday holiday, early-week calm can mislead. Wednesday’s minutes sets the reaction function, and Friday’s PCE + PMI can lock in the next multi-day trend. If real yields and the USD move together after catalysts, expect the cleanest step-forward opportunities—either to add risk (cooler inflation / stable growth) or protect capital (sticky inflation / tightening liquidity).deliver the cleanest “step-forward” opportunities—either to add risk (cooler CPI) or protect capital (sticky CPI).